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Pomona
Professor Dents High-Profile Theory
That Elderly Can Defer Death to See Next Holiday
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A new study by Pomona College Professor Gary N. Smith,
published in the May/June 2004 issue of Psychosomatic
Medicine, debunks the high-profile theory that elderly
people are able to postpone dying until after holidays of
great personal importance.
In the study, Smith focused on Asian American deaths near
the Harvest Moon Festival, one of the most anticipated
holidays by Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese Americans. The
holiday occurs on the 15th day of the eighth moon of the
lunar calendar, and family customarily gathers for bonding
and celebration, including a festival meal at midnight.
Analyzing deaths recorded by the California Department of
Health Services for the years 1985 through 2000, Smith found
that elderly Chinese and Vietnamese women had increased
mortality during the week before the festival compared to
the week following. Elderly Korean women either had more
deaths before or the same number of deaths before and after
the festival.
The results contradict a 1990 study, based on California
data from 1960 through 1984, that found death rates for
Chinese American women at least 75 years old dropped in the
week before the Harvest Moon Festival and increased the week
after. Reanalyzing the data in the 1990 study, Smith
questions the validity of one of its key parameters.
“The statistical significance of the results,” says Smith,
“hinges on whether the 15 women who died on the festival day
are counted as having successfully prolonged their lives.
Since the main festival activity is the midnight meal in the
moonlight, it seems reasonable to count those people as not
having been able to postpone their deaths for the festival
celebration. If a person is really able to postpone death
until after the celebration of an important ceremonial
occasion, shouldn’t she be able to postpone death until
after the main ceremonial activity?”
The May/June 2004 issue of Psychosomatic Medicine contains a
second article that questions the validity of deferred death
theory. In that article, Judith A. Skala and Kenneth E.
Freedland, both of the University of Washington, reviewed 18
studies published between 1973 and 2001.
Smith, the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona
College, is the author of “Introduction to Statistical
Reasoning” (1998) and “Financial Assets, Markets and
Institutions” (1993), as well as numerous articles published
in professional journals. He has twice received the Pomona
College Wig Distinguished Professorship Award for Excellence
in Teaching.
Smith can be reached at his office by phone at (909)
624-7935 or by email at Gary.Smith@pomona.edu.
Pomona College, one of the nation’s premier liberal arts
colleges, offers a comprehensive program in the arts,
humanities, social sciences and natural sciences. Its
hallmarks include small classes, close relationships between
students and faculty, and a range of student research
opportunities. For more information on Pomona College, visit
www.pomona.edu <http://www.pomona.edu/> .
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