Baseball Research by Professor Gabe Chandler and Guy Stevens '13 Featured on Wired.com
Guy Stevens '13
Professor Gabe Chandler
“A college pitcher with a knack for numbers and his statistics-loving coach have found a way to mine baseball statistics that could help big-league scouts and managers more accurately assess minor-league prospects and bring better hitters to The Show,” according to a Dec. 13 article on Wired.com.
Mathematics Professor Gabe Chandler, who is also a baseball coach, and Sagehen pitcher Guy Stevens ’13 were looking for ways to more accurately assess the big leagues hitting potential of minor league baseball players, at each level of the farm system. Focusing on the 1999-2002 seasons, they found that teams generally place too much emphasis on draft position, giving the benefit of the doubt to early draft picks.
The researchers told Wired.com that a better approach is "is to make a more objective assessment using the stats that matter at various levels: the ratio of walks to strikeouts for Rookie league hitters and OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging) at the higher levels," writes Wired.com reporter Jeff Beckham. "Using a technique called a 'classification tree,' they looked for correlations between major league success and minor-league statistics of on-base percentage, home runs, and runs batted in. They found that you can not accurately judge hitters by their early minor-league performances."
Professor Chandler teaches statistics courses, including Intro to Biostatistics with Lab, Statistical Linear Models and Statistical Theory. He has been with Pomona College since 2010.
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